Editorial on the news of the Day and Review of the Gridlock around the world.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Comparing India and China is like comparing Apples and Sand

India and China are an excellent contrast in point v counterpoint.  The countries share simple characteristics in occupying large masses of land, having enormous populations, and having a population that is very very poor.

That's pretty much where the similarities end.

The Australian does an excellent job of comparing their dissimilarities.  Guy De Jonquieres calls them out in his article China, India like chalk and cheese and twain may never meet as follows:

In most ways, the two countries are polar opposites. China is a communist autocracy that has instituted sweeping economic reforms, opened its economy to the world and mobilised vast resources for development. India is an unwieldy democracy whose last big economic reforms were forced on it by a financial crisis in 1991, since when political gridlock has frustrated liberalisation. China has thrived because of government policies; India has prospered in spite of them.

China's rise has broadly followed a well trodden east Asian path, being investment and export-driven and fuelled by abundant domestic savings. India, with a more closed economy and far lower savings rate, depends heavily on domestic consumption to sustain growth. China struggles to control excessive fixed asset investment, while India is constrained by scarce capital and woefully inadequate infrastructure spending.

Low-cost production is the engine of China's real economy. Indian manufacturing still generates a small share of national output - as do its much-vaunted software and services industries. India has a reasonably sound banking system and a long-established stock exchange. China's shaky banks have yet to learn how to price risk and lend prudently, and its equity market is primitive.

It seems to me to beg the question, 'How long will it be before India stands up and takes its place in the world as the newest source of cheep labor following a long tradition of developing countries to have done that from Mexico, Japan, Korea, Mexico and most recently China.

India has the stability necessary and the banking system, all they lack is the ability to open their doors to trade and mobilize their work force.  Imagine an Indian economy with two cylinders Technology services and Manufacturing.

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